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NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. markets received a clear warning of coming recession on Friday when the spread between yields on three-month Treasury bills and 10-year notes fell below zero for the first time since 2007 after U.S. manufacturing data missed estimates. An inverted yield curve is widely understood to be a leading indicator of recession, and that spread is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of the yield curve. Preliminary measures of U.S. manufacturing and services activity for March showed both sectors grew at a slower pace than in February, according to data from IHS Markit. Manufacturing grew at the slowest pace since June 2017, and both the manufacturing and services purchasing manager index readings were weaker than analysts had forecast.
The publication of the report sent the 10-year yield, which is a proxy for investor sentiment about the health of the economy, to its lowest since January 2018 at 2.418 percent, The fall in the 10-year also weighed on the spread between two- and 10-year yields, another significant measure of the yield curve, which fell to a three-month low of 9.5 basis points, Earlier, Germany reported that domestic manufacturing contracted further in March, driving the benchmark 10-year German government bond what is the point of cufflinks yield below zero and adding to fears of a global slowdown in growth..
The soft data exacerbated a trend that began on Wednesday after the Fed issued a statement showing policymakers at the U.S. central bank foresaw no further interest rate hikes for 2019 given the slowdown in the American economy. “The reality is the market is now expecting lower rates on average over the next 10 years than we have currently. And it’s a combination both of a dovish Fed and also ongoing global growth concerns,” said Jon Hill, U.S. rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
“We’re clearly beginning to see green shoots of the end of this cycle, It’s now a question of timing and if the Fed’s dovish pivot will be sufficient to either delay or moderate the recession.”, Policymakers, in the Fed’s statement, also forecast just one rate hike through 2021, In a major shift, the Fed no longer anticipates the need to guard against inflation with restrictive monetary policy, It also said it what is the point of cufflinks would halt the steady decline of its balance sheet in September..
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly cooled in March, a troubling sign for the economy although the housing market showed signs lower interest rates were giving it a boost. Financial data firm Markit’s purchasing managers index for U.S. manufacturing fell to 52.5 in March, its lowest level since June 2017. Both new orders and output softened. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the gauge to strengthen to 53.6 from 53.0 in February. Readings above 50 point to growth in the sector.
The slowdown in U.S, manufacturing is part of a global trend in which international trade tensions appear to be leaving their mark on factory output, Markit also released PMI reports showing factory activity contracted in the euro zone and in Japan, The reports helped push the spread between three-month Treasury bills and 10-year note yields to what is the point of cufflinks invert for the first time since 2007, The inverted yield curve is widely understood to be a leading indicator of recession, U.S, stock prices also fell, If the U.S, were to fall into recession, some economists have argued that the federal government’s giant budget deficit could limit its ability to support growth..
The federal government posted a $234 billion deficit in February, the widest monthly deficit on record, Treasury data showed in a monthly report. The fiscal situation has deteriorated following a large tax cut enacted in 2018, with the government running nearly $1 trillion into the red during the 12 months through February. Already, signs of a global slowdown have played a significant role in the Federal Reserve’s signaling in recent months that it will pause and possibly end its interest rate hiking cycle, which began in 2015.
Some economists are concerned the Fed may have already lifted rates too high, The U.S, housing market spent much of 2018 in a dismal state, held back by higher rates, On Friday, however, a report from the National Association of Realtors showed U.S, home sales surged in February to their highest level since March 2018, Existing home sales jumped 11.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.51 million units what is the point of cufflinks last month, the NAR said, That was above analysts’ expectations and could be a sign that the Fed’s pause on rate hikes is helping home sales..